April 10, 2023
Tesla signed yesterday in Shanghai a New Megapack Factory.
It will be completed in Q3, 2024 and is expected to make 10k Megapacks initially.
No target date was given for the Intitail 10k unit annual Capacity, I will just
have to assume about 2 years from opening, meaning 2026.
Each Megapack is a 3.9Mwh capacity and costs around $2m without installation.
That is $20B in revenue by 2026.
Tesla has a similar factory in Lathrop, CA, that is planned to reach 10k Megapack
capacity, probably by next year making $20B in revenue.
It is widely believed that the Megapack is a very very high-margin item,
especially after Tesla raised the price last year from $1m for a 2.6Mwh unit,
to $2m and increased capacity of 3.9Mwh.
Add to that, the Commercial Federal incentive to American-made batteries
at $35 per kWh ($140k per unit made and sold in the US
if qualified).
For context, Tesla's total Revenue in 2022 was $82B,
China factory produced 710k cars in 2022,
52% of the entire Tesla production of 1.31M.
However, Tesla in China sales were only 453k cars in 2022, which only produced
$18.5m revenue, which is 22% of total revenue and an ASP of $41k per car
compared to $55k per car globally.
Model S and X refresh only launched in China in 2023, therefor are no high ticket
luxury sales in China in 2022.
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