March 30, 2023
BYD is the Second largest BEV manufacturer in the world.
It is often stated to be the largest, but that is not accurate,
because half of their cars are PHEV.
Still today, most people are not familiar with this company,
either as Investors or even as general knowledge.
Until the middle of last year, it was not known to anyone in Israel,
Today it is the largest BEV seller in Israel with 5000 in the first quarter alone.
I will not be at all surprised if their total exceeds 15k for the year, maybe 20k.
That will put them in the 5 largest car sellers in Israel overall, not only in EV
but possibly no. 4 and Geely right behind.
2022 Most Popular brands
1. Hyundai - 42,540
2. Kia - 38,224
3. Toyota - 36,881
4. Mazda - 18,770
5. Skoda - 13,559
Regarding the most popular model...
BYD Atto 3 is likely to be NO 1, with Geely Geometry C No 2.
2022 Most Popular Models
1. Kia Picanto - 12,971
2. Toyota Corolla - 10,751
3. Hyundai Tuscon - 7,432
In Global Numbers...
BYD makes a lot more than cars, They make buses, trains,
Solar, Batteries, and Cellular phones.
They have been selling BEVs since 2009, but they also sold ICE cars and PHEVs.
In early 2022 BYD ended permanently, the sales of ICE cars.
Their total number of cars sold has been declining gradually every year since 2016,
when they sold around 500k cars mostly ICE, of course, that year.
In 2020 they sold only 411k cars, 232k of them were ICE.
In 2021, They sold the last 133k Ice cars and
600k NEV (BEV and PHEV, pretty much split even).
In 2022, BYD went through an extremely impressive ramp-up led of course
by their Battery manufacturing vertical integration
and their manufacturing experience in-house.
They produced 1.86m cars, Half BEV, half PHEV (only 56k, 3% were exported).
Of course, by ramping up dramatically mass production,
they enjoyed the economy of scale and high post covid prices, and the EV rush.
It shined through to their financial bottom line.
BYD reported $61B Revenue in 2022, $2.5B net income, a 4% Net profit margin,
up from $32B in revenue in 2021 and $440m in net income.
It does seem growth will continue this year, but nowhere near 150%, in 2022 growth.
For comparison, Tesla's 2022 Revenue was $82B, Net Income was $12.6B
a 15.3% Net profit margin. I personally expect BYD and Tesla to grow at a similar
rate in Car Sales moving forward (50% average YoY), however, It is important to notice that BYD ASP (Average selling price) was $30k while Tesla was $55k
before FSD income.
BYD, is set to rule China, IMO, as well as many other countries.
They will probably pass Tesla in total BEV production in 2023 or in 2024,
at the latest.
However, IMO, BYD, and Tesla can not be compared equally overall.
Surprisingly, in China alone, BYD sales are down in Q1, 2023 compared to Q4, 2022.
Although, this is the same situation for all Chinese EV sales in China,
Tesla seems to be breaking the record in q1 China sales
and exceeding Q4 by a slight margin.
BYD sold 321k BEV in China in Q4 and estimated only 5-8k BEV export.
In Q1 BYD is estimated to end with 250-260k in China,
No info on exports at this time (around 20% drop QoQ).
BYD is also said to be ramping down, cutting shifts,
and reducing production this quarter.
This could be explained by the end of incentives in China,
slower macro economy and probably also
Tesla's aggressive price cuts which occurred mostly in 2023,
obviously, this did not affect 2022 financials.
Actually, BYD was scheduled to launch the first BEV in the US in 2011, the e6, a 249m,
80kwh BEV for $35k, later the price has gone up to $52k and delayed to 2013,
only to be finally scrapped from arriving in the US.
Interestingly, BYD CEO and founder Wang Chuanfu said yesterday
that BYD has no plans to expand into the US, at this time.
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