April 12, 2023
Cybertruck is coming this year, finally.
Against all odds and against many skeptics.
A few big questions remain so far, unanswered...
- When will production begin and when will mass production start?
- What size battery will be used and will it start at 300m range or 250m?
- Will there be a 500-mile range as promised? will it be offered early?
- And the biggest of them all... What will the Price be?
Yes, there are many skeptics who still doubt it will come,
Doubt it will look as the Concept, Doubt the features, Doubt the demand,
and Doubt the Price can beat the experienced Ford Legacy Pickup king.
I do believe this issue is settled, Production will start this year
and Mass production next year.
I own a 2022 Ford Lightning Lariat Extended range.
Although I bought it before the price hike, it was a pretty penny,
and I was blackmailed to pay another $5k "Adjustment" on the Delivery day.
I drove 17.5k miles in 7 months, crazy, I know,
especially considering the fact that Ford only offers a mediocre
3 Yr/36k miles warranty and a 5 Yr/60k miles Power train.
I had to buy an extended 5 Yr/60k Warranty from Ford
My odometer reads an average consumption of 2.4 miles per kWh (0.416 Kwh/M).
This actually matches exactly the EPA range of 320 miles per 131Kwh battery.
131kwh / 320 miles = 0.41 Kwh/M.
Ford Lightning is rated at 70 Mpge by the EPA.
Rivian R1T is rated slightly higher at 73 Mpge.
Rivian R1T Long range is equipped with a 135Kwh battery
and is rated range by EPA recently bumped to 328M, but only on the standard 21".
I am Using these 2 amazing EV trucks as a base for my assumptions,
Adding to that Tesla's proven Battery efficiency lead overall,
As can be seen in the attached Table, and making some bold but logical conclusions.
Tesla is probably going to be the heavier of these 3, but surprisingly,
Rivian R1T's Long-range Curb weight is 6950-7150 lb, Base is probably 6500 lb+,
While Ford lightning Long range is only 6600 lb, the Base is 6200 lb,
Although The R1T is smaller.
I assume Cybertruck will be on par with Rivian R1T in weight, due to
Giga casting, Exoskelton, structural battery, and other long-developed skills.
I don't see Cybertruck getting less than 75 Mpge, possibly more.
Similar to Ford Base, achieving 240M, and Rivian Base,
achieving 270m with 5% more battery, I assume Tesla can and will
achieve anywhere between 250-300 Miles on a 100Kwh battery.
However, Tesla might want to skip the lower range below the 300M range
Altogether and start at around 320-330M range,
and probably 115-120Kwh battery.
Regarding the 500M range CyberTruck, I am just guessing,
it will have to wait a year or 2, due to a push to production
these days over profits and high Tag vehicles
(I assume it will require a 170-180Kwh battery).
Oh, the Price!
Well, Tesla did promise a
- RWD, 250M for $40k.
- Dual motor, 300M for $50k.
- Trimotor, 500M for $70k.
This was pre Covid, Inflation, High interest, Chip shortage, Recession, War,
I think that's enough.
Prices are expected to be higher in the same way Ford and Rivian raised theirs significantly.
Ford Retail Lowest cost lightning currently available is the
- XLT at $64k for 240M range, $81k for 320M. (Up from $53k)
- Pro at $60k for 240M but only available to Fleets. (Up from $40k)
- Lariat at $76k for 240M, $86k for 320M. (Up from $67k)
Don't forget to add a $5-10K "adjustment", a Ford Dealer fee.
Rivian raised prices too, But they actually introduced lower-performance options
at near earlier prices.
- R1T Dual Motor, 270M, $74k (was not available before)
- R1T Quad Motor, 328M, $90k (Up from $75k)
- R1S Dual Motor, 26oM, $79k (was not available before)
- R1S Quqd Motor, 321M, $94k (Up from $76k)
Also, Tesla already changed some features and added and dropped others.
Some think Tesla should start with Higher end more expensive models first,
Make more profit while demand for higher trims can not be met yet.
However, I actually hope Tesla, in line with current Tesla trends,
dropping prices and focusing on Maximum production as well as Meeting
The Federal IRA rebate for the advantage of Customers,
both in Price limit and in Battery component sources.
If Tesla would deliver a 300-330 Mile truck Dual motor for $70-75k or less,
That would be a "hardcore smackdown to EV pickups" and once ramped up,
to all ICE pickups.
Although Rivian began deliveries in late 2021, nearly 2 years before Tesla,
and Ford began in 2022, neither was able to ramp up production to any
significant mass number yet.
Rivian is guiding to 50k in 2023 combined with SUV and Commercial van,
yet only delivered 8k in Q1 this year.
Ford has long guided at a 150k annual rate by Fall this year,
yet delivered only 4300 Lightnings in Q1 this year and
less than 20k since delivery began last May.
Tesla is targeting to reach mass production in 2024,
I will bet the numbers will exceed Ford, Rivian, or any newcomer,
quickly by 2024 and never look back.
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