Elon Musk Tesla predictions, Which ones came true?

06.26.23 Elon Musk's past predictions In 2010, Musk predicted 6-7 years to a mass production car. I guess you could say it took 7 with the Model 3. Although it took another few Quarters to get through Production hell, mass production started in early 2018. In 2014, Musk predicted "Tesla will build 500k cars in 2020", and they actually built 509k. Musk also predicted a 50% growth of production YoY on average. In 2012, Tesla sold 2.5k cars, in 2013 - 20k, and in 2014, at a time of prediction - 31k. In 2022, Tesla sold 1.31m cars. The average growth of production YoY from 2014 to 2022 was above 59%. In Revenue, Tesla grossed $400m in 2012, $2b in 2013, $3.2b in 2014, and $82b in 2022. This represents exactly 50% growth in Revenue YOY since 2014. If 50% growth continues... Tesla should be selling 33m cars in 2030, and Revenue will be near $2T! Given the limited car market and other limiting factors... I would comfortably see nearly $1T in annual revenue and only 15-20m cars sold by 2030. However, non of these factors in the potential growth in other sectors like Solar PV, Energy production, Battery Storage, FSD software and Hardware, Full-size Semi-trucks, Supercars, Software added revenues, Car Sharing(Robotaxi), subscription in-car services, Battery manufacturing, Charging network, Robots, Dojo computers (and speculative future products like HVAC, VTOL, Airplanes, Ships, and others unannounced yet). All with Zero advertising. Elon Musk's current predictions In September 2020, Musk predicted Tesla will produce 3 Terra Watt batteries in-house and sell 20m cars in 2030. Musk recently also predicted without a timeline, that Tesla's valuation will be higher than Apple and Aramco combined (currently $5T combined, but will likely be higher when the prediction comes true). Indeed, some of Musk's predictions are still delayed, though I don't doubt most to be completed at some point. Among the well-known delayed predictions: - Solving FSD, longest delay, although progress is impressive, Package is available to purchase for $15k, but final completion and regulatory approval are still not reached, expectations are 2023 or 2024. - 500-mile Semi mass production, presented in 2017, predicted roll out in 2019, dedicated factory being built now in Nevada, will probably be massed produced in 2024, although 37 trucks are rolling around right now, owned by Pepsi. - Next-Gen Roadster, presented in 2017, was delayed due to priorities and battery shortage, although it is meaningless in terms of Revenue and profits, it is expected to finally roll out in 2024 or 2025. - Cybertruck, presented in 2019, was expected in 2021, but delayed for priority reasons, Battery shortage, and other, Factory was completed last year in Texas, and the assembly line is producing Alpha prototypes right now, expected to roll out this quarter, Q3, 2023. - Next Gen Giga Mexico model, announced 2023, Factory to start construction this quarter, Roll out expected Q4 of 2024. - Tesla Optimus Bot, presented in 2022, is not expected to roll out before 2025. - Tesla solar roof, presented in 2016, was expected to roll out and ramp up to 1000 per week in 2019, so far only 3000 were installed in total, and the price was doubled. This could be considered a failed program after all. I would be very careful to doubt Musk's predictions, and the effect on all the sectors Tesla is involved in, Encouraging some companies to succeed, while resulting in others who don't adapt to fail. #tesla #tsla #ElonMusk