04.28.2023
Enphase (ENPH) is an outstanding growth story...
It is a Solar Inverter manufacturer, the "small" competitor of Solar Edge (SEDG), the Israeli company.
Enph crossed into profitability in late 2018 and reached 20-24% Operating margin in mid-2020, bouncing between 14% to 21% since 2021.
Actually, from 2014 to 2017 Enphase Revenue was decreasing, while Solar Edge was growing fast, but since 2017, Enphase Revenue has grown 700%, while SEDG only 400% (for context TSLA revenue has grown 600% in the same period).
SEDG on the other hand reached above 20% Operating Margin in 2014, and even above 30% and 40% in 2015 and 2016, but has been declining since, reaching levels of 5-10% in the last 2+ years.
In 2022, ENPH is only 25% lower than SEDG in Revenue.
Stock was $0.72 exactly 6 years ago in 2017.
The stock peaked at
$7 in early $2018
$34 in 2019,
$59 in Feb 2020,
$214 in January 2021,
$267 in November 2021 and
$336 in December 2022
(x460 or 46000%).
Interestingly, after every single peak, the stock fell soon after by 40-50% and you can see, it recovered and moved much higher.
On 4.26.23 ENPH reported Q1 earnings,
As usual, it beat "Expectations" and made another record, but it lowered the next quarter's guidance, due to higher interests and difficulty to offer good finances as well as Consumer hesitance facing Economy uncertainty.
The stock was down 25% reaching $164, pretty much 51% below the recent peak in December.
I am sure California's new Net Billing Tariff (NBT) has something to do with this guidance...
From several Solar quotes I received over the years, Enphase seems to me a much more popular choice of inverter by installers probably due to their individual AC Micro Inverter technology vs SEDG DC String Inverters.
The company's market share is still smaller than Solar Edge, but growing at a higher rate and its Margins are outstanding compared to SEDG and the industry.
Enphase also sells its own line of home battery storage... IQ 3 at 3.4Kwh for $3k+ install and 10.1kwh at $8k+ install, compared to Tesla Power wall 2, a 13.5kw for 11.5k including install.
I personally don't see the benefit of the Battery grid-tied in Net metering states, especially since you need many batteries to support the heavy load of home systems and mostly since 33 states have a Net metering policy where the grid is basically used as a battery!
Also, you could connect an External $1000 Generator to your home grid, pretty easily and legally by an Automatic transfer switch or interlock switch.
I am very bullish on Solar in general and ENPH and SEDG are probably 2 of my leading choices, especially since they both control over 50% of the US market, but probably only 5% combined of the Global market share.
However Solar is probably one of the most volatile sectors in the last 10 years.
I do see Solar as the main Energy production solution in the next decade.
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