05.08.23 Fisker is a Relative newcomer in the EV scene. However, it is the second life of Fisker. Fisker was a Hybrid EV startup 15 years ago. They were a US company, that developed, built,
and sold a Luxury sedan, Fisker Karma, for $125k+. The company was rewarded more loans ($529m) than Tesla did($465m and paid it all back within 2-3 years) back then but only had a chance to get around $192m before the remaining loan was canceled after the company filed for bankruptcy in 2012. The Government was not able to recover much of that, and the company was sold to a Chinese firm Wanxyang after some time for $135m. The karma seized production obviously, but actually, the Original Karma returned to the US, about 5 years ago, with a new Brand name "Karma", under Chinese ownership. They began selling a renewed but similar hybrid Luxury sedan the "Revero" for $13ok, later renamed GS-6 and the price dropped to $100k. Henrik Fisker, the founder, came back in 2016 to start
a new American company for EVs only. After several concept cars such as "Emotion" and teased Solid-state batteries (scrapped), they revealed a small EV suv called Ocean, which first delivery took place in Europe this week. The company does not make their own cars. Fisker is made by Magna an Automotive OEM, in Europe, similar to what NIO does in China and what Nikola attempted and failed to do with GM, a long time ago, in 2020.
The Ocean SUV was promised to reach the 350m range EPA and sell for $37.5k. It seems to have a 113kwh battery. The current trims offered are $60k up to $85k, with availability expected to start from high trims to low trims going forward. The First deliveries will be the "ONE" trim, the Launch edition at $69k, around 5k of those ordered, out of 63k reservations total (not yet confirmed as orders, though).
in September they hope, the Extreme trim will begin deliveries at $76k and up and later on the Cheap, $60k, Ultra trim. Interestingly, Fisker promises the Ocean to start at $37.5k (Sport trim, at a later date, not yet offered to reserve), while the Tesla Model Y was $66k. Today That 330m range Tesla Model Y is $43k after the rebate, while the Fisker is $60k and up (for the Ultra trim, available to reserve, but expected to deliver hopefully in 2024).
A few more interesting points:
The Ocean weighs 5060 lb while the Model Y is 4555 lb, though the dimensions are identical.
The Ocean One has a 113kwh battery and an estimated 350-360m EPA (440 miles WLTP) while Tesla Model Y is only 81kwh and 330m range EPA.
Fisker is still stating (Late February the last time),
that they are going to produce and sell 42k this year in 2023*.
That would be 0-42k in 7 months.
300 vehicles for Q1, over 8k for Q2, over 15k for Q3, 20k for Q4.
I have heavy doubts about Production guidance, and also about
the Product's overall value and the Fisker business model in general.
Although, the car does look great (Fisker is after all a car designer),
the current price tag compared to similar size vehicles and performance is unsustainable while dropping the price is not a possible option for them, IMO.
* - Update 05.09.23:
After reading my post 🤣 , Fisker reduced guidance for Q2 from 8k to 1.4-1.7k, and of course for the whole year down from 42.4k for 2023 to 32k-36k for 2023.
I expect several more production guidance downgrades going forward and similar production delays as RIVN, LCID, and TSLA experienced in the first ramp-up of new products (actually Legacy even more with Mach-E, Lightning, Bolt and other EVs slow ramp-up and availability). FSR stock today is around $6.5 after a nice run in the last few weeks from $4.45 ATL.
FSR has been declining since $28.50 in February 2021, near 85% off peak.
I am not an Investor in FSR. I was not convinced by the Production model through a third party and neither the path to profitability.
Stock will enjoy EV startup hype, especially once the first cars are delivered, but there is much more to financial success even if the product is very good, which does not seem to be in this case. Fisker as far as I know, does not have any IP to write home about.
Fisker is a much prettier, cleaner, not fraudulent case of Nikola's experiment.
If you are looking for another Hyped EV stock, check out MULN, IMO, the Next Nikola failure, without the bells and whistles.
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