ICE
BEV
12.23.23
Contrary to public opinion, if comparing similar specs and Trims, the Ford F150, Super Crew, AWD ICE truck starts pretty much at the same price as the Lightning BEV.
Yet, the BEV has $7500 federal rebate which makes the lightning lower than ICE.
BEV F-150 Lightning vs ICE Model Pricing:
2024 AWD SuperCrew (5.5" bed, ICE) XL trim: $47.5k. Lightning PRO: $50k;
ICE XLT AWD: $54k; Lightning XLT: $55k.
Lightning Long range (320 miles) XLT Extended: Starting at $70k.
Ford F-150 Lightning Deliveries:
Deliveries began in May 2022.
2022: 15,000 units delivered (~2,150/month).
2023: <19300 units in 11 months (~1,750/month).
Production Challenges and Demand Concerns:
Several shutdowns in 2023 for "Quality review".
Ford reduced Dealer Inventory due to "soft demand".
Ford announced it is cutting 2024 production target by half, from 160k to 80k.
Pricing Dynamics and Customer Response:
Initial projected price: $40k-80k.
2022: Price increased of $8k-$10k for all non-confirmed orders.
Entry Pro model (240-mile range): Price increased from $40k to $60k, later reduced to $50k in 2023.
Resulting in customer cancellations due to price hikes and dealer markups ($5k-$10k in some cases).
Ford F-Series Popularity and Market Expectations:
Bestselling truck in the US for over 40 years.
654k units sold in 2022.
Unfortunately Lightning demand is not growing despite price parity with ICE versions and qualifies for additional $7500 federal rebate and some additional State rebate.
Underlying Factors and Speculations:
Unavailability of Pro base model, at least until recently.
Price hikes and additional dealer adjustments in 2022.
Dealers' financial disincentives for BEV sales due to loss of maintenance income and no dealer adjustments above MSRP (Actually, you can find way Off MSRP these days).
Ford's potential reluctance to sell BEVs at a loss.
Devil's choice: Selling a BEV at a loss versus profitable ICE sales.
Resemblance to limited production compliance cars to avoid ZEV penalties.
Tesla Cybertruck in the Equation:
Speculation on Tesla's CT demand given Ford's situation.
Tesla priced the CT RWD, 250m range at $61k but available only in 2025, compared possibly to the XLT SR (240-mile range) at $55k and the CT AWD, 340m range for $80k, compared to $79k+Lariat AWD (320-mile range).
Tesla's large reservation bank (>2 million formal orders) allows Tesla to sell only the Foundation series right now at $100k and $120k.
Expectation: Tesla's profitability in the BEV sector might lead to even lower competitive pricing and superior specifications/features.
Tesla models 3 and Y are the best featured while priced the lowest, best incentives and mostly available BEV in the market, all that while still profitable for seller.
Based on the above, I assume Tesla Will at some point reduce prices on CT, while offering best features and even beating the "competition" while reaching convincing profitability.
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