April 12, 2023
CPI (12m trailing inflation) announced this morning... 5%. This was better than 5.1% expected.
This makes the 10-th consecutive month of declining inflation since peaked at 9.1% in June, followed by 8.5%, 8.3%, 8.2%, 7.7%, 7.1%, 6.5%, 6.4%, 6%, and now 5%.
The CPI was up MoM 0.1%, better than 0.2% expected. This is actually a 1.2% annual inflation run rate.
Next month could be flat or possibly negative.
The markets are reacting very positive.
The Core CPI (excluding Volatile Food and Energy) was 5.6% for the past TTM.
Core CPI increased 0.4% for the month, both as expected.
The Popular consensus is actually for one more 0.25% interest raise ahead in next Fed meeting on May 3 and perhaps 2 x 0.25% decreases this year beginning in the summer.
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