10.11.2023
An HSBC analyst initiated coverage on TSLA for the first time ever, with a $146 PT, a 34% down, sell rating.
The analyst is a 2 out of 5 Tiprank score Auto analyst with Hold and Buy ratings for other Legacy Auto.
Amazing what a random "Professional Analyst" could do...
Stock was down near 7% by yesterday, ended 5.5% down for the day, $210.
RIVN was down near 10% although beat Earnings this week (still negative profits, but improving quickly).
Rivian reported Q3 earnings and are increasing their 2023 production guidance to 54,000 (from 50k).
Highlights:
• EPS: -$1.19 vs -$1.32 est
• Revenue: $1.34B vs $1.31B est
• Gross profit: -$477M (vs -$917M in Q3 2022)
• Operating expenses: $963M
• Net loss: -$1.37B
• $9.13B cash on hand (down 34% YoY)
• Production 16.3k up from 14k in Q2 and up from 7.4k.
• Deliveries 15.6k, up from 12.6k in Q2, up from 6.6k YoY.
LCID had disaster earnings, misses, lower deliveries, losses, stock at ATL - $3.76.
Lucid reported Q3 earnings and are reducing their 2023 production guidance to 8-8.5k (from 10k).
The significance of this is that up to May 2022, Lucid 2022 guidance was 20k production!
In May 2022, they reduced guidance to 12-14k for 2022.
In August 2022 they reduced guidance to 6-7k for 2022, they ended 2022 with 7.2k produced and 4.4k delivered.
2023 guidance as of February 2023, was 10-14k, near half of previous year's guidance 9 months prior, now it is ,8k.
This can't only be "Production".
Due to Lucid high prices ($77.4k- $250k), lack of Rebate eligibility, limited Luxury sedan lineup, Early stage of company with high expenses and difficult Macro conditions, they are in a very bad place financially.
Although, their IP is impressive and their product is compelling, financial problems tend to bring down the best when at fragile stages.
Given Lucid high prices, they hit a demand Ceiling and exhausted their Reservation list. Due to these Macro conditions, rebates and Tesla aggressive price cuts, Lucid moved from Production constraint to Demand constraint.
In some magical way, Lucid could drop their prices significantly, however, losses will increase drastically.
Not sure if Saudis(60% Ownership) will continue funding this situation.
Highlights:
• EPS: -$0.25 vs -$0.40 est (due to lower revenue)
• Revenue: $138m vs $194m est
• Gross profit: -$332M (vs -$297M in Q3 2022)
• Operating expenses: $750M
• Net loss: -$0.63B
• $4.4B cash on hand
• Production 1.55k down from 2.2k in Q2 and down from 2.3k.
• Deliveries 1.46k, up from 1.4k in Q2, up from 1.4k YoY.
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