05.05.24
HYBRID
Once there was Hybrid...
A Car with a small battery 0.6-2.4kWh that runs an Electric motor, but is charged through regenerative braking and the ICE motor which operates on Gasoline.
This technology is obviously more expensive than ICE alone since it includes 2 drive trains.
The ICE motor will attempt to Keep the very small Battery fully charged and therefore providing up to maximum EV range(between 1-3m) at zero effort for the Driver (since they don't have to plug in) as often as the car can charge it while driving.
This is typically economical in City and Stop and Go traffic.
The Car will usually switch back and forth between drive trains to maximize Performance and Efficiency.
The Hybrid offers a better MPEG compared to ICE.
A Non Plug-in Hybrid is not qualified for the $7500 Tax rebate since it does not have a plug.
PHEV
A PHEV is qualified for the rebate, if it has at least a 7kWH which is about 8-10% of a standard Battery in a BEV. This size battery can power an average car 25-30 miles (Larger batteries could go higher) before the ICE motor kicks in and takes the car another 200 or 300 miles on Gasoline.
A PHEV is more expensive than a Hybrid since it must include An AC to DC transformer, A DC to DC component and other Electrical circuits due to Charging, and a larger battery of course.
An ICE car average MPG is 24-30 MPG.
A Hybrid Car average MPG is 48-60.
A PHEV Car average MPEG is supposedly 62.
A BEV Car average MPEG is around 100.
The Scam
However, the MPEG for a PHEV is counting on the fact that owners start the trip or the day with a fully charged battery after plugging it in.
If that is indeed the case, these numbers are solid and PHEV is slightly more efficient than Hybrid.
But, the fact is that significantly most of PHEV owners don't bother plugging in for the lousy 24-30m range or even 50m.
They simply choose to ignore it. That turns the PHEV to a less economical car than a Hybrid since it:
- costs more (minus the rebate),
- has more failing points and 100-300lb Heavier (for 5-15kwh more than A plain 2kwh Hybrid).
A PHEV generally does not charge the Full battery while driving. It usually charges up to 15% enough to provide Hybrid functions.
Some PHEV like Honda Clarity would charge up to 57% of the 18kwh battery while driving, which probably discourages Owners to charge even more.
PHEV is presented to the public as an EV, justifying the $7500 tax payer gift.
- It is not an EV.
- It is not more economical than a Hybrid, practically.
- It does provide a great way out of the BEV race for the Legacy Auto Extending ICE Age slightly longer.
- It does provide a few years of raises and job security to Unions.
- It does allow the Government to claim "Environment conscience" while doing the Opposite.
- It allows the government to claim spending money to "Encourage" Battery, Car, Chip and essential manufacturing away from China into America while actually not.
- It allows current Oil industry slightly longer grip on the automobile sector.
- It gets to slow down slightly the biggest "threat" to America and Earth, the Company and the CEO who doninate 52% of US BEV market.
- It creates a pretty convincing Nerrative that Low production identifies as low demand, Lower Prices on BEV lead by Tesla is actually bad for the Consumer, and that $7500 rebate identifies as depreciation.
Western Governments roll
In May 2024 the US government decided to ease the battery component requirement until 2027, allowing many companies to qualify their BEV and PHEV for the rebate.
Although this might benefit Tesla with one trim of one model, and other BEV's too, it is designed to help mostly the PHEV sector which is expected to explode in the next couple of years.
Legacy Auto/Unions/government/Oil are promoting the PHEV as growing in Demand vs BEV.
They are cutting production, lowering targets, cancelling investments. All benefiting their financial bottom line in the short term.
This actually comes ontop of a very weird exemption that the US government announced a year ago.
Since Foreign Manufactures selling EV's in the US and those who battery components are from China, were not qualified for the rebate, they managed to put pressure on the Government to allow full rebate with nearly no restrictions if Car is leased instead of purchased.
Non of these exemptions help the original cause of strengthening America in rear earth Mining, Battery and Car production away from China.
It does however channel Billions to the Auto sector to actually resist the transition a few years longer.
BEV adoption status
China NEV sales reached 49% in April, probably at least half is BEV.
Israel's full BEV adoption rate, crossed 25% in the first 4 months of 2024.
Europe in 2024 is currently approaching 15% average for BEV, lead by Norway at 85%, France and the U.K at 25%, the Netherlands at 30%, and Sweden at 60%.
At the Same time...
The largest Auto manufactures Countries in the West are lagging heavily:
- US slightly below 8% for BEV.
- S.K around 6% for BEV, 9% including PHEV.
- Japan, a whopping 2.2% EV, probably 1.5% BEV.
- Germany, was 15% BEV in 2023.
- Italy, 4% BEV in 2023.
This clearly represents, IMO, the power of Union/Legacy ICE companies on the Governments, media and Consumer to suppress BEV growth through logical Fallacies like Demand, Depreciation, Liability, even Environmental claims.
No question the demand growth had temporarily slowed facing this huge disinformation campaign.
However, Growth slow down from 100% or even 50% YoY to only 20 or 30% us not the same as "lower demand".
The Consumer who wanted BEV badly 2 years ago and did not get it due to price, can get it today, a much more advanced at 30-35% less (half of that due to the newly introduced rebate).
Is that Consumer suddenly not interested?
No, He is, but... He is been told that:
The demand is low which must mean there is a reason.
The depreciation is terrible (actually it is the same as any ICE if you knock out the 15-17% from the rebate)
Repairs are expensive, which is true, but this was a known fact, it is only getting better, and is not relevant under warranty and Insurance.
Charging is not reliable or accessible or fast enough. Was partially true about all other EV's, but not for Tesla and improving very fast for all the rest.
ICE and PHEV are going to push with heavy discounts while limiting BEV availability.
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