06.11.23
SpaceX is the only Western Human space travel solution since 2020, after 9 years with no Western Human travel capability after the Shuttle shutdown in 2011.
SpaceX Crew Dragon cost to NASA is much lower than Starliner or the canceled Shuttle program.
Since the shutdown of The Space Shuttle program in 2011, NASA was inclined to pay Russia per astronaut to reach the ISS on board the ancient but reliable Soyuz space vehicle.
NASA paid Russia $80-$86m per seat, to keep American Human presence in space.
In 2014, NASA began paying both Winners of the Crewed mission project, Boeing and SpaceX, to develop the project and for Crewed missions.
Boeing was awarded $4.2B for the development of the Starliner, including 6 Crewed Astronaut trips to the ISS with 4 seats each, and later paid another $300m, to a current total of $4.5B.
SpaceX, probably as an underdog and lack of Union ties, was paid only 2.6B for exact same thing, Development of Crew Dragon and 6, 4 astronaut trips to the ISS.
Both companies were supposed to start demo flights in 2019 and Crewed flights shortly after.
SpaceX managed to Complete the Demo in 2019, and the first Demo crew in 2020. Boeing completed the Autonomous Demo flight of the Starliner only in 2022 after many delays. To this date, it was not able to reach the first Crewed Demo, due to delays and technical problems.
July 21, 2023, was supposed to be the first 2 person crewed mission. On 06.01.23 NASA announced another indefinite delay, possibly through all 2023.
SpaceX is currently the only NASA-crewed vehicle. It still maintains an Exchange program with Russia by sending 1 astronaut once a year with Russia's Soyuz and in exchange 1 cosmonaut onboard the Crew Dragon.
Since the initial 2014 award to SpaceX, and SpaceX reaching full operation, NASA awarded SpaceX another $2.35B for additional 8 ISS crewed missions until 2030.
The current Crew Dragon seat costs NASA in this calculation, $73M.
If compared entire Development budget + Operational contracts, Boeing 6 flights (which might possibly never happen), cost NASA $4.49B or $187m per seat.
SpaceX's overall Development + Operational contracts, 14 flights, cost NASA $4.93B, or $88m per seat. Another huge contract for Deep space Human travel was awarded to Lockheed-Martin in 2006, for the Orion Spacecraft which was tested uncrewed in 2022 on a trip to the moon. The current funding already awarded for the Orion program is above $20B. SLS, Space Delivery system development was awarded to Northrop Grumman in 2011, for the Artemis program. Since 2011, $24B was spent on the development of this system and $6B more on Ground upgrades. The first Launch was in 2022 with the first Orion test, as part of the Artemis program, Artemis 1, an uncrewed roundtrip to the moon. The estimated cost per launch is $2B (some speculations it could reach $4.1B per launch).
In comparison to the SLS, the Starship/Superheavy, being developed by SpaceX can deliver more capacity and can be refueled in space for longer missions, and is fully reusable, which could bring the cost per launch lower than $100m per launch, some say much lower.
SpaceX commercial prices for reference are $67m per Falcon 9 Low earth orbit mission, and $97m for a Falcon Heavy mission.
They also offer a $1.1m price for a small 200kg ride-sharing service for small satellites. In direct comparison, ULA, United Launch Alliance, another Joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed-Martin, was established in 2006 and provides satellite launch and Supply missions to Space on 2 vehicles, Delta and Atlas rockets. Delta 4 Heavy has 2 missions left through Q1, 2024 before the program is terminated. The current price NASA pays for such a launch is $440m. The last contract was for 4 flights at $2.2B. Atlas 5 has less than 19 missions left including 7 Starliner missions before the Atlas program is scheduled to be terminated in 2024. The current cost per flight starts at $109m, lowered dramatically from $187m per launch before 2021, to compete with SpaceX Falcon 9 then $55m, and now $67m per launch.
These 2 discontinued programs are planned to be replaced by another ULA program, the Vulcan Centaur which has not yet been tested and is expected to cost $169m per launch and is very comparable to Falcon 9 capabilities and capacity at x 2.5 cost.
In comparison to the Shuttle program... The Shuttle program was awarded in 1972 to Rockwell International. In 1996 Boeing bought Rockwell and was forced to create a Joint venture with Lockheed Martin called USA, United Space Alliance.
The Shuttle program was originally planned to reach 50 flights per year at $43B total program cost for 15 years and $54m per flight in 2011 dollars ($59B total and $72m per flight in 2023 dollars).
In later more realistic terms, Estimates have gone up to $54B total cost in 2011 dollars ($72B in 2023 dollars) for 15 years, but only 12 flights per year.
The actual program Total cost was $196B
In 2011 dollars ($265B in 2023 dollars), for 30 years of development and operation, 135 flights total or an average of 4.2 flights per year.
In 2009 NASA paid $3B for 5 Shuttle missions($4B or $800M per flight in 2023 dollars). In 2011 it was estimated that a single flight of the Space Shuttle would be $450m ($600m in 2023 dollars), right before it was shut down for good. SpaceX is the only company that currently operates a full Stage 1 reusable Booster and reusable Fairings for the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, and developing a 100% reusable Superheavy/Starship system to be tested again this summer. Blue Origin, owned by Jeff Bezos, is developing a reusable large delivery rocket system, the New Glenn, but has not yet built, presented, or tested one. SpaceX was awarded $2.89B in 2021 for developing the Starship as a Human moon lander. This followed an intensive series of legal challenges by Blue Origin until they finally got their demands from Nasa in 2023. Blue Origin was awarded $3.4B in 2023 for developing a lunar lander called Blue Moon as a backup for SpaceX Starship lander, both part of the Artemis moon landing program. Overall, Artemis's Annual budget is $8B per year through 2028, mostly for SLS and Orion.
#SpaceX #Boeing #LockheedMartin #ULA #USA #BlueHorizon #Artemis #Orion #Starliner #Falcon9 #StarShip #SuperHeavy #Delta4 #Atlas5
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