05.04.2023
After Q1 2019 Earnings
Facts
Tesla reports a drop in Revenue by 38% from $7.2B to $4.5B, and Deliveries down from 91k to 63k, back to losses after 2 slightly profitable quarters.
Causes
- End of sales Push in the US to maximize US rebate before it halved.
- Logistical delays in deliveries of First model 3 in 2 huge new global markets, Europe and China.
- Prices reduced in the US to accommodate lower rebate.
Reaction
- Investors bailed out.
- Big Analysts downgrades.
- Adam Jonas famous $0.67 PT (adj).
- Demand concerns due to Rebate end.
- "Competition is coming".
- Greater losses, Lower margins concerns.
Stock
- Stock fell all the way to $12(adj) in early June, lower than 2013, 6 years prior (when stock crossed $12 for the first time, after a $413m revenue year in 2012, compared to $21.5B in 2018).
Results
- Stock rallied 150% in 2019 since that low,
and another 700% in 2020.
- TSLA delivered 50% more in 2019 and 36%, 87%, 40% more in following years.
- They crossed into profitability in Q3, never looked back.
After Q1 2023 Earnings
Facts
- Deliveries grow continously.
- Tesla reports a drop in revenue,
margins and profits.
Causes
- Tesla cut prices reversing pandemic
price hikes.
- Highest interest rates, recession threats.
Reaction
- Investors bail out.
- Analysts downgrade (but still positive).
- Adam Jonas: "Cybertruck is a niche" and
"Tesla price cuts will slow EV adoption and will help Legacy ICE survive".
- Demand concerns.
- Competition is coming.
Stock
- Stock fell all the way to $152 in late
April, as low as Nov 2020 (before model Y ramp up, pre huge 2021 and on profits, pre Shanghai ramp up, pre Austin and Berlin, pre Cybertruck, Semi and FSD revenue, pre Megapack, pre enacted rebate in 2023).
Likely Results?
- Stock rallies X% in 2023 since that low,
and another Y% in 2024.
- TSLA delivers 50% more in 2023 and 40% in the following 7 years on average, resulting in 20m cars annually by 2030.
- EV adoption worldwide crossed 10% in 2022, will continue to grow exponentially at more than 40% a year, surprising all analysts and Legacy ICE, reaching 80% globally by 2028.
- Tesla price cuts fuel EV adoption globally expanding market reach even pre Tesla's next gen $25k EV from Mexico in 2024.
- US re-awarded rebate and Commercial incentives in 2023 and on, benefits Tesla heavily as Tesla still controls over 60% of US, exponentially growing EV market share.
- Due to Tesla newly available rebate and price cuts, US EV adoption will grow even faster from 5.8% in 2022 and catch-up to global 10% and likely pass it by 2024.
- Tesla total US Auto market share grew from 2.2% in 2021 to 3.5% in 2022 and expected to continue growing at this rate for some years to come.
- Tesla Model Y is likely going to be the #1 sold car in 2023 globally, beating Toyota Corolla, RAV4 worldwide and possibly some US Pickup trucks in the US.
- Tesla Model 3 and Y at $36.25k and $39.5k after rebate are some of the lowest EV's available in the US, and lower then many popular mid to high level ICE offers.
- These prices are certainly lower than the US average car price of $49.5k in Dec 2022.
- The US average EV transaction price in 2022 was $65k, Tesla price cuts are expected to drop by near $10k in 2023 and realistically $5k-7k more due to the rebate which is ignored in these figures.
#Tesla #TSLA #Cybertruck #Highland
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