08.25.2023
Vinfast, a Vietnamese young EV company just Spac'd (VFS) on 08.15.23 at $10, but started trading at $22 and ended the first day at $37.
Vinfast began selling 1 EV model in the US VF8 and is soon to be followed by the second one, a 7-seater SUV VF9, both only in California right now.
The company only sold 7400 Ev's globally in 2022 and hopes (probably not going to happen) to sell 50k Ev's in 2023. They only delivered less than 200 cars in the US so far this year.
The SPAC target valuation was $23B, although it reached above $85B at the end of the first trading day and today VFS market cap is $159B.
For Market cap, Annual Revenue, Net income comparison
TSLA - $747B, $82B, $12.6B
TM - $273B, $279B, $25.34B
VFS - $159B, $0.64B, (-$2.1B)
BYDDY - $89B, $61B. $2.4B
VW - $72B, $294B, $15.66B
F - $48B, $158B, (-$2B)
GM - $45B, $156.7B, $8.9B
RIVN - $19B, $1.66B, (-$6.75B)
LCID - $14B, $0.61B, (-$1.3B)
VFS stock was down to $15, 3 days later on 08.18.23.
Today,
1 week later it is $69.
VinFast has 14k employees, and its 2022 revenue was $641m with a $2.1B loss.2021 Revenue was $671m and 2020 was $571m.
Lucid IPO
A natural comparison would be Lucid SPAC - SPAC started at a $23B valuation, reached $90B, and now is $14B.
Lucid is guiding for 10k cars sold in 2023, although the ASP per car is much higher, closer to $100k per car.
The estimated 2023 revenue is around $800m. 7200 Employees.
Rivian IPO
Rivian IPO started at a $77B valuation, quickly reached $153B, and now is $19B.
Rivian guidance for 2023 is 52k cars and the ASP is $89k per car.
The estimated 2023 revenue is around $5B. 14k Employees.
Conclusion
A small, mediocre Company is nearly double BYD in value, up 350% in one week, after originally given way too much value in the first place.
Market cap of VFS is more then x3 of Ford, x3 of GM, higher then Ford, GM and VW combined.
Although I hate to bet against companies, this one looks like a guaranteed to win short.
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